Where NRDS sits among all investable US stocks
Cheapness against five-year return on assets, as percentiles. Upper left is cheaper with higher returns; larger dark dots are its industry (Internet and Data Services).
NerdWallet is cheap, with buybacks as the live catalyst, but earnings look above normal and its founder controls the vote.
NerdWallet runs a personal finance site that connects consumers with card, loan and insurance providers, and its shares are down 58.3% over five years while peers rose 24.6% and the S&P 500 gained 75.6%. Profit is under pressure: Q2 GAAP net income fell 48% as search traffic weakened and spending rose. The question is whether 8.0× operating income is a bargain or peak earnings. Cheap, with real cash and buybacks, but earnings look high and Chen controls the vote.
The commentary was written on November 5, 2026, from that day's figures. Since then: operating earnings yield 12.5%, now 12.6%. The figures and charts show today's.
The last five years on the numbers
Where NRDS has ranked among investable US stocks each quarter since 2021. Hollow dot: five years ago; solid dot: the latest quarter. The share price over the same years is in the five-year record below.
Cheap, with average returns on assets, and the cash backs it up.
8.0× EV to operating income, 6th percentile of US stocks; 36th for return on assets. Industry median is 69th. Earnings yield 12.5% vs 4.9% Treasury; FCF yield 19.0% (95th); net cash $50M.
Against the market, its industry and sector
NRDS as a percentile of all 3,202 investable US stocks, against the 75 in Internet and Data Services and the 414 in the Technology sector.
| Metric | NRDS | Position | In its industry | Industry median | Sector median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 6th | #7 of 75 | 69th | 64th | |
| Free cash flow yield | 95th | #6 of 75 | 49th | 44th | |
| Shareholder yield | 98th | #6 of 75 | 43rd | 44th | |
| Dividend yield | 26th | #12 of 75 | 26th | 26th | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr avg | 36th | #29 of 75 | 31st | 48th | |
| Debt to book equity | 13th | #7 of 75 | 59th | 38th | |
| Market cap | 24th | #53 of 75 | 46th | 56th |
Percentiles of the number itself. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 5th percentile on the multiple is cheaper than 95% of investable US stocks. Green is the better end, red the worse. Orange dot: NRDS; bar: industry median; diamond: sector median. Data as of 2026-10-31.
Over- or under-earning?
Over-earningReturn on assets ranks at the 91st percentile of investable US stocks, against a median of the 28th and a low of the 7th since 2022. That is well above its usual level, so it may be over-earning, and today's multiple is likely too low on a normalized basis. If earnings normalize, the multiple would likely rise: from the 6th percentile today (cheaper than 94% of investable US stocks) to around the 71st (dearer than 71% of investable US stocks), judging by where it sat in past quarters when returns were at their usual level.
| Percentile | Today | Returns normal | Returns at low |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on assets (higher is better) | 91st | 28th (median) | 7th (low) |
| Acquirer's Multiple (lower is cheaper) | 6th | 71st | n/a |
Percentiles among investable US stocks. Return on assets is operating income over total assets, trailing 12 months. The last two columns show where it sat in past quarters when returns were within 7.5 points of their median (8 quarters) and of their low (1). The past, not a forecast.
Price v Return
What the shares and assets earn, against the 10-year Treasury.
Its industry against its own history
Internet and Data Services report →Industry median multiple: 71st percentile, cheaper than in 45% of quarters since 1999. Return on assets: 30th percentile, usual range. Free cash flow yield: 47th percentile, higher than in 68%. Stock stands out as cheap in an average-priced industry.
| Metric | Percentile now | Usual range | Against its history | Last 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 71st | 61st–78th | Usual range | |
| Free cash flow yield | 47th | 33rd–49th | Usual range | |
| Shareholder yield | 42nd | 27th–46th | Higher than usual | |
| Dividend yield | 26th | 24th–30th | Usual range | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr | 30th | 19th–54th | Usual range | |
| Debt to equity | 58th | 19th–54th | Most debt on record | |
| Company size | 47th | 38th–68th | Smaller than usual |
The industry's median stock as a percentile of all investable US stocks on each number. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 10th percentile is cheaper than 90% of the market. For yields, returns and size, higher is bigger. Usual range covers the middle 80% of quarters since 1999; it's the shaded band in each chart. Each chart is zoomed to its own range (the numbers on the left): green shading marks the metric's better side and red its worse side, the dashed line is the 50th percentile, and the dot is today, coloured by where it sits.
Buybacks are live; activism and a takeover face a controlling founder.
Buyback yield is 20.0%. Remaining authorization fell from $89.7 million to $67.0 million between March 31 and June 30; shares are retired. No activist, bid or sale process found.
Catalyst check
Likelihood of a catalyst: HighBuybacks are live and sizable; no activist, bid or sale process found, and the founder's voting control makes a takeover hard.
Peak earnings and a founder's vote are the main risks.
Return on assets sits at the 91st percentile against a 28th median: it may be over-earning, so today's multiple is likely too low on a normalized basis. Chen's Class B shares decide any sale vote.
Value-trap check
Value-trap grades can miss that return on assets is at the 91st percentile, well above its own usual level.
Swings came from the company and its niche, not the market.
Down 58.3% over five years against peers +24.6%, tech +120.4% and S&P 500 +75.6%. Results, downgrades and partner marketing cuts drove the big moves; rate hopes lifted the 2025 peak.
Five years of moves
NRDS −58.3% since 2021-11-04, against the median of EVER, QNST, TREE +24.6%, Technology (XLK) +120.4% and the S&P 500 (SPY) +75.6%. Numbered dots mark inflections (peaks and troughs); shaded bands mark divergences from the sector or market.
What drove each turning point
| # | Turning point | NRDS | Peers | Sector | S&P 500 | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Divergence vs market · 2021-11-19 → 2022-03-04 | −64.9% | −23.3% | −12.4% | −7.5% | Company |
| Post-IPO slide from the $34.44 high; analysts cut targets after Q4 results, and one note blamed higher rates. NRDS fell 64.9% against peers −23.3%, so mostly company-specific. valuethemarkets.com (624 days ago); investors.nerdwallet.com (1715 days ago); quantisnow.com; Seeking Alpha (1665 days ago) | ||||||
| 2 | Trough · 2022-05-06 → 2022-06-03 | +42.9% | −14.5% | −0.4% | −0.2% | Company |
| Q1 revenue of $129.1 million, up 43%, came May 3. No source explains the rebound; NRDS rose 42.9% while peers fell 14.5%, a company move. SEC filing | ||||||
| 3 | Trough · also +126.7% vs market · 2022-12-23 → 2023-03-03 | +139.3% | +20.6% | +12.5% | +5.6% | Company |
| Q4 results beat: EPS $0.12 against $0.07 expected, and analysts raised targets. NRDS rose 139.3% against peers +20.6% and sector +12.5%: a company move. investors.nerdwallet.com (1359 days ago); benzinga.com; fool.com (1356 days ago) | ||||||
| 4 | Peak · also −67.1% vs sector · 2023-03-03 → 2023-07-07 | −59.6% | −48.4% | +22.7% | +9.3% | Sector |
| Card and insurance headwinds, then a Citi downgrade on May 3 (shares fell over 15%). Peers fell 48.4% while the sector rose 22.7%: an industry-niche slump. tipranks.com (1282 days ago); SEC filing; uk.marketscreener.com (621 days ago); marketscreener.com (1105 days ago) | ||||||
| 5 | Trough · 2023-10-20 → 2024-02-16 | +134.2% | +108.6% | +23.8% | +19.1% | Sector |
| Q3 revenue of $152.8 million beat the $144.3 million estimate, and a $30 million buyback was approved. Peers also rose 108.6%, so part of the rebound was shared. marketscreener.com (1105 days ago); SEC filing; investors.nerdwallet.com (1105 days ago) | ||||||
| 6 | Trough · 2025-04-04 → 2025-12-05 | +86.6% | +20.8% | +61.2% | +36.5% | Sector |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
| 7 | Peak · 2025-12-05 → 2026-05-15 | −49.6% | −35.6% | +20.6% | +8.4% | Sector |
| Rate-cut hopes lifted shares to the peak. Then a Morgan Stanley downgrade and a Q1 revenue miss hit; peers fell 35.6% while the sector rose 20.6%. Yahoo Finance (337 days ago); marketscreener.com (236 days ago); chartmill.com (182 days ago); Investing.com (177 days ago) | ||||||
| 8 | Divergence vs sector · 2025-12-05 → 2026-06-18 | −45.7% | −27.5% | +30.9% | +9.8% | Sector |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
Prices: daily closes. Peers chosen by the AI analyst as the closest US-listed businesses. Moves are over each window: for a peak or trough, the move that followed it. Driver is Company, Sector or Market; see Definitions below.
Every report on NRDS
Each AI analyst report as it was published, with the share price that day and the move since (today $11.60). Past performance is not a guide to the future.
| Report | Price then | Since | What it said |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026Latest | $11.62 | ▼ −0.2% | Buybacks are live at NerdWallet, trading at 8.0× operating income with net cash · Catalyst: High |
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Definitions
- Acquirer's Multiple®
- Enterprise value ÷ operating income (trailing 12 months). What an acquirer would pay for the whole business against what it earns before interest and tax. Lower is cheaper.
- Enterprise value
- Market cap at today's price, plus debt, preferred stock and minority interests, less cash.
- Operating income
- Trailing 12 months, after depreciation and amortization.
- Operating earnings yield
- Operating income ÷ enterprise value: the Acquirer's Multiple turned upside down.
- Free cash flow yield
- Trailing 12-month free cash flow (cash from operations less capital spending) ÷ market cap.
- Shareholder yield
- Trailing 12-month dividends plus net buybacks (shares bought back less shares issued) ÷ market cap. Dividend yield and buyback yield are its two parts.
- Return on assets
- Trailing 12-month operating income ÷ total assets at the latest quarter.
- Net debt : market cap
- Debt less cash, as a share of market cap. Negative means net cash.
- E(r)
- Expected annual return if the Acquirer's Multiple doesn't change. It has three parts: return on assets (what the business earns on what it owns); incremental growth (return on assets × the reinvestment rate, where the reinvestment rate is five-year average capital spending ÷ five-year average total assets: what reinvested capital adds); and shareholder yield (what is paid out through dividends and buybacks). E(r) = return on assets × (1 + reinvestment rate) + shareholder yield.
- 10-year Treasury
- The latest monthly 10-year US Treasury yield, the risk-free rate the yields are compared with.
- Percentiles
- Where the stock sits among investable US stocks (price above $3, market cap above $75M, average daily trading above $850,000, no ADRs or MLPs), updated each week. Each is the percentile of the number itself: for the Acquirer's Multiple (here EBIT ÷ enterprise value) and debt (total debt ÷ book equity), lower is better; for yields, five-year average return on assets and market cap, higher is bigger. Stocks outside the investable set, such as ADRs, are placed against it.
- Industry and sector
- FactSet RBICS industry. Industry and sector medians are the middle investable stock's percentile. Industry history is that median each quarter since 1999; the usual range is the middle 80% of quarters.
- Turning points
- Inflection points are the peaks and troughs where the stock's trend reversed by about 25% or more on weekly closes; each is compared over the move that followed. Divergences are stretches where the stock pulled away from its sector fund or the S&P 500 by about 20% or more. Each is set against its peers' median, its sector fund and the S&P 500 over the same window. Driver: Market if the market moved with it (same way, at least half as far) and so did its peers or sector; Sector if only its peers or sector did; Company otherwise.
- Value-trap grades
- Return on assets: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Net debt : market cap: Strong at 30% or less, Mixed at 100% or less. Free cash flow yield: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Shareholder yield: Strong at 8% or more, Mixed at 3% or more.