Where MU sits among all investable US stocks
Cheapness against five-year return on assets, as percentiles. Upper left is cheaper with higher returns; larger dark dots are its industry (Semiconductor Manufacturing).
Micron is cheap on earnings that look unusually high; a $35.16 billion buyback authorization, usable from Dec. 9, is the only catalyst in sight.
Micron makes DRAM, NAND and high-bandwidth memory. Its shares rose 1093.6% over five years, ahead of peers (+676.2%), Technology (+130.0%) and the S&P 500 (+80.6%). On Thursday, November 5, 2026, they fell 13.5% amid a chip sell-off and a report that a Taiwan plant build was halted. Is the discount a bargain or an over-earning trap? The numbers say cheap, but returns are far above Micron's own norm, so the low multiple may not last.
The commentary was written on November 5, 2026, from that day's figures. Since then: Acquirer's Multiple 7.4×, now 7.3×; FCF yield 7.6%, now 7.7%; operating earnings yield 13.6%, now 13.8%. The figures and charts show today's.
The last five years on the numbers
Where MU has ranked among investable US stocks each quarter since 2021. Hollow dot: five years ago; solid dot: the latest quarter. The share price over the same years is in the five-year record below.
Cheap and high quality, but returns may be above normal
7.4× EV to operating income: 12th percentile of US stocks, cheapest of 39 in industry (median 71st). Return on assets 96th percentile. FCF yield 7.6% (65th); earnings yield 13.6% vs 4.9% Treasury; net cash $38.3B.
Against the market, its industry and sector
MU as a percentile of all 3,202 investable US stocks, against the 39 in Semiconductor Manufacturing and the 414 in the Technology sector.
| Metric | MU | Position | In its industry | Industry median | Sector median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 12th | The cheapest of 39 | 71st | 64th | |
| Free cash flow yield | 65th | #4 of 39 | 35th | 44th | |
| Shareholder yield | 37th | #20 of 39 | 37th | 44th | |
| Dividend yield | 52nd | #13 of 39 | 26th | 26th | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr avg | 96th | #6 of 39 | 74th | 48th | |
| Debt to book equity | 13th | #12 of 39 | 19th | 38th | |
| Market cap | 100th | The largest of 39 | 78th | 56th |
Percentiles of the number itself. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 5th percentile on the multiple is cheaper than 95% of investable US stocks. Green is the better end, red the worse. Orange dot: MU; bar: industry median; diamond: sector median. Data as of 2026-10-31.
Over- or under-earning?
Over-earningReturn on assets ranks at the 99th percentile of investable US stocks, against a median of the 84th and a low of the 16th since 2017. That is well above its usual level, so it may be over-earning, and today's multiple is likely too low on a normalized basis. If earnings normalize, the multiple would likely rise: from the 11th percentile today (cheaper than 89% of investable US stocks) to around the 22nd (cheaper than 78% of investable US stocks), judging by where it sat in past quarters when returns were at their usual level. If returns fell to their low, it would be around the 84th (dearer than 84% of investable US stocks).
| Percentile | Today | Returns normal | Returns at low |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on assets (higher is better) | 99th | 84th (median) | 16th (low) |
| Acquirer's Multiple (lower is cheaper) | 11th | 22nd | 84th |
Percentiles among investable US stocks. Return on assets is operating income over total assets, trailing 12 months. The last two columns show where it sat in past quarters when returns were within 7.5 points of their median (12 quarters) and of their low (4). The past, not a forecast.
Price v Return
What the shares and assets earn, against the 10-year Treasury.
Its industry against its own history
Semiconductor Manufacturing report →The industry's multiple is dearer than usual: 72nd percentile, cheaper than in 24% of quarters since 1999. Return on assets, 75th percentile, is near its best; free cash flow yield, 35th, near its lowest. Micron stands out as cheap.
| Metric | Percentile now | Usual range | Against its history | Last 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 72nd | 55th–76th | Dearer than usual | |
| Free cash flow yield | 35th | 35th–58th | Near its lowest | |
| Shareholder yield | 37th | 33rd–55th | Lower than usual | |
| Dividend yield | 26th | 24th–30th | Usual range | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr | 75th | 27th–74th | Near its best | |
| Debt to equity | 19th | 17th–35th | Usual range | |
| Company size | 78th | 44th–69th | Near its largest |
The industry's median stock as a percentile of all investable US stocks on each number. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 10th percentile is cheaper than 90% of the market. For yields, returns and size, higher is bigger. Usual range covers the middle 80% of quarters since 1999; it's the shaded band in each chart. Each chart is zoomed to its own range (the numbers on the left): green shading marks the metric's better side and red its worse side, the dashed line is the 50th percentile, and the dot is today, coloured by where it sits.
A $35.16 billion buyback authorization is the only catalyst, not yet used.
Repurchases may begin Dec. 9 under CHIPS Act terms. Nothing was bought in fiscal Q4. Activism and takeover: nothing found in three years.
Catalyst check
Likelihood of a catalyst: ModerateA $35.16 billion buyback authorization may start Dec. 9, but no shares were bought in fiscal Q4, and no activist or bidder appears.
Over-earning is the main risk: the low multiple may be too low.
Return on assets: 99th percentile, against its own median 84th and low 16th. If earnings normalize, the multiple likely rises from the 11th percentile to around the 22nd; near its low, around the 84th.
Value-trap check
Grades miss that return on assets is far above Micron's own norm, so earnings could fall back and the multiple rise.
Sector swings, not company news, drove most of the big moves.
Every turning point was sector-led. After the 2022 peak MU fell 48.4% (peers −49.2%); after the June 18, 2026 peak it fell 27.4% (peers −35.7%). Memory cycles move the shares together.
Five years of moves
MU +1093.6% since 2021-10-27, against the median of SKHY, SNDK, WDC +676.2%, Technology (XLK) +130.0% and the S&P 500 (SPY) +80.6%. Numbered dots mark inflections (peaks and troughs); shaded bands mark divergences from the sector or market.
What drove each turning point
| # | Turning point | MU | Peers | Sector | S&P 500 | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peak · 2022-01-14 → 2022-09-23 | −48.4% | −49.2% | −24.8% | −19.9% | Sector |
| Sector-led. Micron warned on Aug. 9, 2022 after Nvidia's warning and said it would cut fiscal 2023 capex; MU −48.4% to September 23, peers −49.2%, sector −24.8%. fool.com; Yahoo Finance (1543 days ago) | ||||||
| 2 | Divergence vs sector · 2022-02-18 → 2023-07-07 | −32.4% | −32.2% | +13.9% | +3.4% | Sector |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
| 3 | Trough · 2022-09-23 → 2024-06-14 | +185.6% | +130.9% | +86.4% | +50.9% | Sector |
| Sector-led. No news pinned the exact low; Micron then cut capex nearly 50% and wafer starts about 20%. MU +185.6% after, peers +130.9%, sector +86.4%. SEC filing; SEC filing | ||||||
| 4 | Divergence vs market · 2023-07-07 → 2024-06-14 | +134.0% | +107.4% | +33.8% | +25.1% | Sector |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
| 5 | Peak · 2024-06-14 → 2024-09-06 | −38.8% | −22.2% | −10.3% | −0.1% | Sector |
| No news found; MU −38.8% to September 6, 2024 while peers fell −22.2%, sector −10.3% and market −0.1%: a sector-led slide, steeper for Micron. | ||||||
| 6 | Divergence vs market · 2024-06-14 → 2025-04-04 | −54.0% | −48.3% | −19.3% | −5.7% | Sector |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
| 7 | Peak · 2024-11-08 → 2025-04-04 | −42.0% | −41.9% | −22.8% | −15.0% | Sector |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
| 8 | Trough · 2025-04-04 → 2026-06-18 | +1656.3% | +4755.2% | +111.1% | +49.9% | Sector |
| Sector-led. Tariffs hit chips on April 3, 2025 (MU −14.9%). Then HBM shortages and AI demand drove MU +1656.3% to June 18, 2026; peers +4755.2%. Yahoo Finance (575 days ago); itiger.com; schwabnetwork.com (305 days ago) | ||||||
| 9 | Divergence vs market · 2025-08-01 → 2026-06-26 | +981.2% | +2813.4% | +41.6% | +18.6% | Sector |
| Sector-led. HBM shortages and data center demand, with Micron seen sold out of 2026 HBM. MU +981.2% against market +18.6%; peers +2813.4%. schwabnetwork.com (305 days ago); SEC filing | ||||||
| 10 | Peak · 2026-06-18 → 2026-07-31 | −27.4% | −35.7% | −8.3% | 0.0% | Sector |
| Sector-led. After the June 18 peak, a DRAM coordination lawsuit, China's CXMT competition and Fed worries hit memory; MU −27.4% to July 31, peers −35.7%. Yahoo Finance (129 days ago); Yahoo Finance (122 days ago); fool.com (95 days ago); fool.com (103 days ago) | ||||||
Prices: daily closes. Peers chosen by the AI analyst as the closest US-listed businesses. Moves are over each window: for a peak or trough, the move that followed it. Driver is Company, Sector or Market; see Definitions below.
Every report on MU
Each AI analyst report as it was published, with the share price that day and the move since (today $679.20). Past performance is not a guide to the future.
| Report | Price then | Since | What it said |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026Latest | $688.25 | ▼ −1.3% | Buyback authorization opens Dec. 9, but Micron's cheap multiple rests on unusually high earnings · Catalyst: Moderate |
| Oct 31, 2026 | $884.74 | ▼ −23.2% | Micron's $35.16B buyback authorization meets a 9.6× multiple on peak-cycle earnings · Catalyst: Moderate |
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Definitions
- Acquirer's Multiple®
- Enterprise value ÷ operating income (trailing 12 months). What an acquirer would pay for the whole business against what it earns before interest and tax. Lower is cheaper.
- Enterprise value
- Market cap at today's price, plus debt, preferred stock and minority interests, less cash.
- Operating income
- Trailing 12 months, after depreciation and amortization.
- Operating earnings yield
- Operating income ÷ enterprise value: the Acquirer's Multiple turned upside down.
- Free cash flow yield
- Trailing 12-month free cash flow (cash from operations less capital spending) ÷ market cap.
- Shareholder yield
- Trailing 12-month dividends plus net buybacks (shares bought back less shares issued) ÷ market cap. Dividend yield and buyback yield are its two parts.
- Return on assets
- Trailing 12-month operating income ÷ total assets at the latest quarter.
- Net debt : market cap
- Debt less cash, as a share of market cap. Negative means net cash.
- E(r)
- Expected annual return if the Acquirer's Multiple doesn't change. It has three parts: return on assets (what the business earns on what it owns); incremental growth (return on assets × the reinvestment rate, where the reinvestment rate is five-year average capital spending ÷ five-year average total assets: what reinvested capital adds); and shareholder yield (what is paid out through dividends and buybacks). E(r) = return on assets × (1 + reinvestment rate) + shareholder yield.
- 10-year Treasury
- The latest monthly 10-year US Treasury yield, the risk-free rate the yields are compared with.
- Percentiles
- Where the stock sits among investable US stocks (price above $3, market cap above $75M, average daily trading above $850,000, no ADRs or MLPs), updated each week. Each is the percentile of the number itself: for the Acquirer's Multiple (here EBIT ÷ enterprise value) and debt (total debt ÷ book equity), lower is better; for yields, five-year average return on assets and market cap, higher is bigger. Stocks outside the investable set, such as ADRs, are placed against it.
- Industry and sector
- FactSet RBICS industry. Industry and sector medians are the middle investable stock's percentile. Industry history is that median each quarter since 1999; the usual range is the middle 80% of quarters.
- Turning points
- Inflection points are the peaks and troughs where the stock's trend reversed by about 25% or more on weekly closes; each is compared over the move that followed. Divergences are stretches where the stock pulled away from its sector fund or the S&P 500 by about 20% or more. Each is set against its peers' median, its sector fund and the S&P 500 over the same window. Driver: Market if the market moved with it (same way, at least half as far) and so did its peers or sector; Sector if only its peers or sector did; Company otherwise.
- Value-trap grades
- Return on assets: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Net debt : market cap: Strong at 30% or less, Mixed at 100% or less. Free cash flow yield: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Shareholder yield: Strong at 8% or more, Mixed at 3% or more.