Where DDI sits among all investable US stocks
Cheapness against five-year return on assets, as percentiles. Upper left is cheaper with higher returns; larger dark dots are its industry (Software).
DDI is a cheap, net-cash social casino business whose controlling holder has offered $16.25 per ADS, so the tender offer is the catalyst.
DoubleDown Interactive runs social casino games and is 67.1% owned by DoubleU Games. Over five years it fell 19.1% while peers fell 90.4%. On Monday, November 9, 2026 the shares rose 15.6% after DoubleU agreed a $16.25 per ADS cash tender offer. The question for a value investor is whether a bid from the controller pays for a business at 1.8× operating income with $514M net cash. The numbers say it is cheap; the controller sets the price.
The last five years on the numbers
Where DDI has ranked among investable US stocks each quarter since 2021. Hollow dot: five years ago; solid dot: the latest quarter. The share price over the same years is in the five-year record below.
Among the cheapest US stocks, with above-average returns and real cash.
1.8× EV to operating income: 0th percentile, cheapest of 142 in its industry (median 70th). Return on assets 68th percentile. Earnings yield 54.9% vs 4.9% Treasury; FCF yield 18.9% (96th percentile); net cash $514M.
Against the market, its industry and sector
DDI as a percentile of all 3,189 investable US stocks, against the 141 in Software and the 407 in the Technology sector.
| Metric | DDI | Position | In its industry | Industry median | Sector median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 0th | The cheapest of 142 | 70th | 63rd | |
| Free cash flow yield | 96th | #3 of 142 | 53rd | 44th | |
| Shareholder yield | 32nd | #98 of 142 | 54th | 45th | |
| Dividend yield | 26th | #17 of 142 | 26th | 26th | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr avg | 68th | #43 of 142 | 29th | 49th | |
| Debt to book equity | 13th | #19 of 142 | 38th | 38th | |
| Market cap | 23rd | #122 of 142 | 63rd | 57th |
Percentiles of the number itself. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 5th percentile on the multiple is cheaper than 95% of investable US stocks. Green is the better end, red the worse. Orange dot: DDI; bar: industry median; diamond: sector median. DDI is outside the investable set (for example a foreign ADR), so it is placed against investable US stocks. Data as of 2026-11-07.
Price v Return
What the shares and assets earn, against the 10-year Treasury.
Its industry against its own history
Software report →Software sits at the 70th percentile on the Acquirer's Multiple, cheaper than in 65% of quarters since 1999. Return on assets is 29th percentile, free cash flow yield 52nd. DDI stands out as cheap in a typically priced industry.
| Metric | Percentile now | Usual range | Against its history | Last 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 70th | 62nd–80th | Usual range | |
| Free cash flow yield | 52nd | 36th–58th | Higher than usual | |
| Shareholder yield | 52nd | 29th–43rd | Near its highest | |
| Dividend yield | 26th | 24th–30th | Usual range | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr | 29th | 22nd–50th | Usual range | |
| Debt to equity | 36th | 8th–40th | More debt than usual | |
| Company size | 64th | 35th–62nd | Near its largest |
The industry's median stock as a percentile of all investable US stocks on each number. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 10th percentile is cheaper than 90% of the market. For yields, returns and size, higher is bigger. Usual range covers the middle 80% of quarters since 1999; it's the shaded band in each chart. Each chart is zoomed to its own range (the numbers on the left): green shading marks the metric's better side and red its worse side, the dashed line is the 50th percentile, and the dot is today, coloured by where it sits.
A live tender offer from the controlling holder is the catalyst.
DoubleU Games, owner of 67.1%, has agreed to launch a $16.25 per ADS tender, a 19.66% premium to the last close. A special committee found it fair. The April $11.25 proposal was raised $5.00.
Catalyst check
Likelihood of a catalyst: HighA controlling holder has a definitive $16.25 per ADS cash tender offer, approved by a special committee; completion needs unaffiliated holders' tenders.
The risk is control: the buyer also sets the terms.
DoubleU holds 67.1% and sets terms. The offer needs 95% ownership (reducible to 90%) and over 50% of unaffiliated ADSs tendered. Four Tree wanted at least $26.40.
Value-trap check
Grades miss that a controlling holder's offer, not the market, may set the price, and that social casino demand is slipping.
Weakness was social-casino wide; the rebounds were DDI's own.
Over five years DDI fell 19.1% while peers fell 90.4%, Technology (XLK) rose 112.0% and the S&P 500 (SPY) 70.9%. Declines were sector-attributed; two rebounds were company-attributed.
Five years of moves
DDI −19.1% since 2021-11-01, against the median of MYPS, PLTK −90.4%, Technology (XLK) +112.0% and the S&P 500 (SPY) +70.9%. Numbered dots mark inflections (peaks and troughs); shaded bands mark divergences from the sector or market.
What drove each turning point
| # | Turning point | DDI | Peers | Sector | S&P 500 | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Divergence vs market · 2021-11-12 → 2022-08-19 | −44.8% | −34.2% | −10.9% | −8.7% | Sector |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
| 2 | Divergence vs sector · 2023-01-20 → 2023-12-29 | −28.4% | −26.8% | +47.8% | +21.9% | Sector |
| No single driver found. DDI fell 28.4% as peers fell 26.8% and the sector rose 47.8%; SuprNation closed October 31 and Q3 EBITDA rose nearly 19%. SEC filing; SEC filing | ||||||
| 3 | Trough · also +78.5% vs market · 2023-12-29 → 2024-03-08 | +92.1% | −19.4% | +7.7% | +7.7% | Company |
| Company-driven rebound: Q4 2023 revenue was $83.1 million and adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 43.5% from 32.4%, while peers fell 19.4%. Nothing specific to the low. SEC filing | ||||||
| 4 | Peak · 2024-03-08 → 2024-04-05 | −32.1% | +15.2% | −0.3% | +1.6% | Company |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
| 5 | Trough · 2024-04-05 → 2024-11-08 | +72.1% | −10.9% | +15.3% | +16.1% | Company |
| Company-driven rebound: Q1 2024 revenue reached $88.1 million and adjusted EBITDA rose 26%, while peers fell 10.9%. No news found around the April 5 low. ir.doubledowninteractive.com (904 days ago) | ||||||
| 6 | Peak · 2024-11-08 → 2026-03-20 | −49.4% | −65.4% | +15.0% | +10.4% | Sector |
| Sector-attributed decline: Q1 2025 revenue fell to $83.5 million from $88.1 million, STIC sold at $8.50 and $8, and goodwill was impaired; peers fell 65.4%. doubledowninteractive.gcs-web.com; Investing.com (505 days ago); marketscreener.com (316 days ago); SEC filing | ||||||
| 7 | Divergence vs market · 2024-11-08 → 2026-01-30 | −48.7% | −55.2% | +22.3% | +17.4% | Sector |
| Sector pressure shared: DDI fell 48.7% against peers' 55.2% as Playtika planned to cut 20% of staff and Playstudios 30%, while DDI's own secondaries and impairment added. Investing.com (505 days ago); marketscreener.com (316 days ago); SEC filing; Investing.com (246 days ago); SEC filing | ||||||
| 8 | Trough · 2026-03-20 → 2026-10-16 | +65.2% | −21.6% | +36.1% | +18.3% | Sector |
| Sector-attributed, but DDI beat peers (−21.6%): Q1 and Q2 2026 revenue rose 12.7% and 11.2%, and DoubleU's April $11.25 per ADS proposal landed. pulse2.com (185 days ago); GlobeNewswire (170 days ago); GlobeNewswire (79 days ago) | ||||||
Prices: daily closes. Peers chosen by the AI analyst as the closest US-listed businesses. Moves are over each window: for a peak or trough, the move that followed it. Driver is Company, Sector or Market; see Definitions below.
Every report on DDI
Each AI analyst report as it was published, with the share price that day and the move since (today $15.70). Past performance is not a guide to the future.
| Report | Price then | Since | What it said |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2026Latest | $15.70 | +0.0% | Parent's $16.25 tender offer targets net-cash social casino firm at 1.8× operating income · Catalyst: High |
| Nov 1, 2026 | $13.48 | ▲ +16.5% | Controller's $11.25 buyout bid meets activist; net-cash stock trades at 1.1× operating income · Catalyst: High |
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Definitions
- Acquirer's Multiple®
- Enterprise value ÷ operating income (trailing 12 months). What an acquirer would pay for the whole business against what it earns before interest and tax. Lower is cheaper.
- Enterprise value
- Market cap at today's price, plus debt, preferred stock and minority interests, less cash.
- Operating income
- Trailing 12 months, after depreciation and amortization.
- Operating earnings yield
- Operating income ÷ enterprise value: the Acquirer's Multiple turned upside down.
- Free cash flow yield
- Trailing 12-month free cash flow (cash from operations less capital spending) ÷ market cap.
- Shareholder yield
- Trailing 12-month dividends plus net buybacks (shares bought back less shares issued) ÷ market cap. Dividend yield and buyback yield are its two parts.
- Return on assets
- Trailing 12-month operating income ÷ total assets at the latest quarter.
- Net debt : market cap
- Debt less cash, as a share of market cap. Negative means net cash.
- E(r)
- Expected annual return if the Acquirer's Multiple doesn't change. It has three parts: return on assets (what the business earns on what it owns); incremental growth (return on assets × the reinvestment rate, where the reinvestment rate is five-year average capital spending ÷ five-year average total assets: what reinvested capital adds); and shareholder yield (what is paid out through dividends and buybacks). E(r) = return on assets × (1 + reinvestment rate) + shareholder yield.
- 10-year Treasury
- The latest monthly 10-year US Treasury yield, the risk-free rate the yields are compared with.
- Percentiles
- Where the stock sits among investable US stocks (price above $3, market cap above $75M, average daily trading above $850,000, no ADRs or MLPs), updated each week. Each is the percentile of the number itself: for the Acquirer's Multiple (here EBIT ÷ enterprise value) and debt (total debt ÷ book equity), lower is better; for yields, five-year average return on assets and market cap, higher is bigger. Stocks outside the investable set, such as ADRs, are placed against it.
- Industry and sector
- FactSet RBICS industry. Industry and sector medians are the middle investable stock's percentile. Industry history is that median each quarter since 1999; the usual range is the middle 80% of quarters.
- Turning points
- Inflection points are the peaks and troughs where the stock's trend reversed by about 25% or more on weekly closes; each is compared over the move that followed. Divergences are stretches where the stock pulled away from its sector fund or the S&P 500 by about 20% or more. Each is set against its peers' median, its sector fund and the S&P 500 over the same window. Driver: Market if the market moved with it (same way, at least half as far) and so did its peers or sector; Sector if only its peers or sector did; Company otherwise.
- Value-trap grades
- Return on assets: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Net debt : market cap: Strong at 30% or less, Mixed at 100% or less. Free cash flow yield: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Shareholder yield: Strong at 8% or more, Mixed at 3% or more.