Energy and Financials Dominate This Week’s Value Screen
Tuesday, September 23, 2025 · Johnny Hopkins
Energy and Financials still anchor the value landscape. Names like Petrobras (PBR), Equinor (EQNR), Shell (SHEL), TotalEnergies (TTE) and Ecopetrol (EC) screen with chunky cash generation, while Synchrony (SYF), BNY Mellon (BK) and Prudential (PUK) keep Financials well-represented at the very front of the list.
From Petrobras (PBR), at an Acquirer’s Multiple (AM) of 4.1 with a ~35.4% FCF yield, to Equinor (EQNR) at 2.6 AM with ~11.8% FCF yield, the market continues to discount durable upstream/downstream cash flows.
Shell (SHEL) and TotalEnergies (TTE) sit a touch higher on AM (7.6–7.8) but still throw off double-digit or high-single-digit FCF yields (~12.7% and ~8.5%, respectively).
Ecopetrol (EC) rounds out the energy cohort at ~8.0 AM with ~14.0% FCF yield—again, pricing in a harsher demand fade than current results imply.
Second-Tier Strength: Finance (and more Energy)
In Financials, Synchrony Financial (SYF) leads with a striking 2.4 AM and ~35.1% FCF yield, a classic “credit-cycle fear” setup. Bank of New York Mellon (BK) also shows at 2.4 AM (FCF yield ~3.1%), while Prudential PLC (PUK) appears at 3.7 AM with ~3.8% FCF yield—steady capital returns but still priced like risks stay elevated.
Beyond energy and banks, Materials and commodity-adjacent names show up as well: Vale (VALE) at 6.2 AM (~4.4% FCF yield) and Rio Tinto (RIO) at 7.5 AM (~7.0% FCF yield) reflect cyclical skepticism.
CF Industries (CF) screens at 8.5 AM with ~12.9% FCF yield, and even in Telecoms you see double-digit FCF yields (Ericsson (ERIC) ~14.3%, Telkom Indonesia (TLK) ~11.6%) at mid-single-digit to high-single-digit AMs.
Why It Matters
The clustering is telling. Energy remains priced like a sunset industry despite robust FCF and disciplined capex; Financials remain compressed on credit and rate worries. Historically, when fear is this concentrated, patient capital gets paid: high cash returns, buybacks/dividends, and optionality if macro assumptions prove too dire.
Bottom Line
This week’s screen reinforces a familiar pattern: energy continues to lead the deep-value pack, with financials close behind. For long-horizon investors comfortable leaning against consensus, this mix offers exactly the kind of “patience premium” value investing has long rewarded.
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